报告题目：Detection, attribution and emergent constraints
报告专家：Francis Zwiers 院士
报告时间：2023年9月11日（周一）10:00-11:00
报告地点：气象楼423会议室
主 持 人：周波涛 教授
专家简介：
Francis Zwiers，加拿大皇家科学院院士，美国地球物理联合会（AGU）和美国气象学会（AMS）会士。现任加拿大维多利亚大学太平洋气候影响联合中心（PCIC）主任，曾任加拿大气候变化与环境部气候建模与分析中心（CCCma）高级研究科学家兼负责人以及气候研究部主任。发表了200余篇论文和书籍章节，其中12篇论文发表在《Nature》杂志上，是汤普森-路透社高被引科学家。曾担任IPCC第四次评估报告的协调主要作者和IPCC第五次评估报告主席团成员及第一工作组副主席。曾任Journal of Climate的主编和International Journal of Climatology副主编。目前是Journal of Climate 和 Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere的副主编，以及跨学科杂志Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography的联合主编。
报告摘要：
Detection and attribution (D&A) methods have been used to attribute observed climate changes to external forcing on the climate system for close to three decades. Over that time, their application has gathered irrefutable evidence of human influence on the climate, resulting in successively more confident and alarming of the causes of observed changes, including changes in global and regional temperature, extreme heat and cold, global and regional precipitation amount, precipitation extremes, the atmospheric thermal structure, ocean heat content, Arctic sea ice extent and surface hydrology, amongst other variables. As well as serving to understand the role of external forcing in observed changes, the relationships between observed and simulated historical changes diagnosed with D&A studies have been used in many studies to observationally constrain model projections of future change. More recently, enormous interest has developed in using emergent constraints (ECs) to observationally constrain projections of future change by applying relationships between historical and future change diagnosed from model simulations to observations. This talk will review D&A and EC methods and demonstrate that they are closely linked. It will also discuss some recent developments in D&A methodology and describe applications to extreme seasonal mean temperature and extreme daily precipitation.
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气象灾害教育部重点实验室
气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心
大气科学学院
2023.09.01