特邀澳大利亚西澳电力Yun Li博士来我校做学术报告

发布单位:数学与统计学院编辑:蔡惠华发布时间:2018-10-09浏览量:105

报告题目:Seasonal Prediction of the Typhoon Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific with a Poisson Regression Model

报告时间:2018年10月10日 (星期三) 14:00-15:00

报告地点:尚贤楼1楼108报告厅

报告主持人: 曹春正教授

 

报告内容简介:

This study investigates the typhoon genesis frequency (TGF) in the dominant season (July to October) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) using observed data in 1965-2015. Of particular interest is the predictability of the TGF and associated preseason sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific. It is found that, the TGF is positively related to a tripolar pattern of April SST anomalies in North Pacific (NPT), while it is negatively related to SST anomalies over the Coral Sea (CSST) off east Australia coast. The NPT leads to large anomalous cyclonic circulation over North Pacific. The anomalous southwesterly weakens the northeast trade wind, decreases evaporation, and induces warm water in central tropical North Pacific. As such, the warming effect amplifies the temperature gradient in central tropical North Pacific, which in turn maintains the cyclonic wind anomaly in the west tropical Pacific, which favors the typhoon genesis in WNP. In the South Pacific, the CSST supports the typhoon formation over the WNP by (a) strengthening the cross-equatorial flows and enhancing the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone; (b) weakening southeast and northeast trade wind, and keeping continuous warming in the center of tropical Pacific. The influence of both NPT and CSST can persistently affect the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific and induce conditions favorable for the typhoon genesis in the typhoon season. A Poisson regression model using NPT and CSST is devolved to predict the TGF and a promising skill is achieved.

 

专家简介:

李云博士,澳大利亚西澳电力商业情报与数据分析高级咨询顾问,高级预报和模型分析研究员。主要负责西澳电力网络的可靠性和供电量的统计建模和预报研究(包括天气极端事件对电力网络的可靠性和供电量的影响),为西澳电力高层决策和规划管理提供内部高级数据分析咨询和建议。2000-2015年任澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织(CSIRO)首席研究员,从事气候统计学的研究,主要研究领域包括天气和气候极端事件的统计建模、统计降尺度模型、气候变化诊断、降水和气温的统计预报等。

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数学与统计学院

2018-10-08