报告题目：Forecasting extratropical surface weather and climate at one-month leads: importance of stratospheric variability
时间：2022年6月29日 15:00
Zoom ID：329 593 0089 (Password: 58699852)
主讲人：Chaim Garfinkel 教授
主持人：饶建 教授
主讲人简介：
Professor Chaim Garfinkel is head of the Atmosphere Sciences Program, Earth Science Institute of Hebrew University. He received his PhD in atmospheric science at University of Washington and was postdoctoral scholor at Johns Hopkins University. His research interests include Middle Atmosphere Dynamics, ENSO, QBO, Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling.
讲座简介：
Sub-seasonal forecasting (defined here as beyond 2 weeks but less than 2 months) of the extratropics has received relatively less attention than medium range and seasonal prediction despite the considerable socio-economic value that could be derived from such forecasts. This lack of attention in part reflects the difficulty in producing reliable forecasts, as much of the memory of the atmospheric initial conditions has been lost while it is too short for oceanic variability to have a strong influence. This difficulty notwithstanding, recent research has identified several potential sources of predictability for this time range, and here we focus on one: stratosphere–troposphere interactions. In order to better understand why these effects can lead to predictability and to then actualize the improved predictability operationally, this talk will present ongoing work aimed at answering the following four questions: (1) what mechanism(s) underlie these connections? (2) how far in advance can the impacts be predicted? (3) what governs the magnitude of the surface impact? (4) are model biases leading to a misrepresentation of the underlying processes?
